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Welcome to the spring training edition of my tri-annual Dynasty 300 rankings! Consider them to be a “price guide” of sorts for dynasty or keeper leagues, whether yours exists already or plans to start from scratch in 2018.

The rankings formula

The Dynasty 300 uses the following player valuation formula:

  • 2018 performance: 20 percent.

  • 2019 performance: 20 percent.

  • 2020 performance: 20 percent.

  • 2021 performance: 20 percent.

  • 2022 performance and beyond: 20 percent.

The rationale behind these weights is to provide long-term player value projection, in order to help fantasy owners in dynasty/keeper leagues either drafting fresh, weighing trades or making keeper decisions. For those in redraft/single-year leagues, my rankings for 2017 alone can be found here: Tristan’s Top 300. This page, however, is for fantasy owners who need to forecast deep into the future.

Bear in mind that other factors influence these values, beyond simply your league’s scoring system. Here are some of the other things to consider:

  • Number of keepers: How many players can you keep each year, and must every team keep the same number?

  • Player pricing: Is your league draft or auction format, and do you price players by draft round, for a dollar amount, or is price not part of the keeper equation?

  • Contract factors: Are there limits on the number of years you can keep a player and/or are there guaranteed contracts, and is there price inflation?

  • Farm teams: Does your league include minor league/farm team slots and how are these players factored into the keeper system?

  • Team competitiveness: Are you a contender, rebuilder or something in between?

Dynasty 300

Note: “Elig. Pos.” is the player’s eligible position(s) in an ESPN league entering 2018. Position eligibility is determined based upon a minimum of 20 games, otherwise the position the player appeared at most, in 2017. Players’ projected future positions — 2019 and beyond — are considered in the ranking. Players’ listed ages are as of March 29, 2018, which is Opening Day 2018.

Players’ peak rankings in past keeper lists (“Prv. Peak”) are provided: These lists have been published semiannually since 2010 and triannually since 2014, with preseason (“Pre-“), midseason (“Mid”) and end-of-season (“End”) designated to differentiate the different times of the years in question. For example, Jon Lester is listed with a peak of 17 in “Mid-10,” meaning that his best all-time rank was 17th, in the 2010 midseason list. A “–” means that the player has never before made the cut.

Positional rankings

Note: Players are listed by position, and their overall rank is included if in the top 300. Players outside the top 300 are denoted by NR.

Catcher

First base

Second base

Third base

Shortstop

Outfield

Designated hitters

Note: Players listed below qualify only at designated hitter entering the 2017 season

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Boston Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez on a mission to leave 2020’s struggles behind

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J.D. Martinez suffered through a miserable 2020 season. He hit .213. He ranked 129th out of 142 qualified hitters in weighted on-base average (wOBA). He finished with more strikeouts than hits. It was a shocking season for a hitter who ranked second in the majors in wOBA from 2017 to 2019, behind only Mike Trout.

He also made one thing clear in spring training: “I’m kind of tired of being judged on two months,” he told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford late in March.

Martinez is making an early statement in 2021. He hit three home runs in Sunday’s 14-9 win for the Boston Red Sox over the Baltimore Orioles and has started the season with extra-base hits in all eight games he’s played — including seven doubles and five home runs. Martinez is the hottest hitter on the planet. Oh, and after Red Sox Nation and pundits were ready to bury the Red Sox after an 0-3 start in which the Orioles outscored them 18-5, Boston has won six in a row.

“He’s on a mission to prove people wrong,” manager Alex Cora said after Sunday’s win. “It was only 60 games. He was one month away from getting his numbers right and now he’s locked in and I’m glad he’s swinging the bat the way he is.”

Against the Orioles on Sunday, his three home runs came off three different pitchers:

• Third inning: 1-2 knuckle-curve from Jorge Lopez, 372 feet to right field (105.2 exit velo)

• Sixth inning: 1-2 curveball from Mac Sceroler, 382 feet to right-center (102.4 exit velo)

• Eighth inning: 0-2 changeup from Tyler Wells, 430 feet to center field (105.7 exit velo)

Granted, that trio of pitchers isn’t exactly headed to the 2021 All-Star Game. I hadn’t even heard of Sceroler and Wells until now, as Sceroler was making just his second major league appearance and Wells his fourth. Still, all three home runs came with two strikes, a good sign considering Martinez hit .171 with two strikes a year ago.

From the cool factoid department, Martinez also became the fifth player to hit three home runs in a game with three different teams:

• Martinez (Tigers, Diamondbacks, Red Sox)
• Mark Teixeira (Rangers, Braves, Yankees)
• Alex Rodriguez (Mariners, Rangers, Yankees)
• Dave Kingman (Mets, Cubs, A’s)
• Johnny Mize (Cardinals, Giants, Yankees)

Martinez’s eight straight games with an extra-base hit to start a season ties the major league record held by Alex Rodriguez (2007) and Sandy Alomar Jr. (1997). It’s the volume of extra-base hits that is so impressive, however, as Martinez is hitting .472/.500/1.083:

OK, the Chris Shelton reference is a reminder that not all hot starts are going to last, but Martinez has that long track record of being one of the best hitters in the game — and now he has his beloved in-game video back to study.

That was offered as one reason for Martinez’s struggles in 2020, when in-game video was disallowed under the guise of pandemic protocols. He also had an ankle issue he played through that may have affected his swing. Whatever the reason, he admitted his troubles were self-inflicted.

“I think I’ve got a little bit of a chip on my shoulder,” Martinez said when he reported to spring training in February. “I’ve always played with that, I’ve always played with that chip, having to prove people wrong my whole career. It kind of might have went away a little bit, but I think I’ve got it back a little bit now.”

Martinez struggled most of spring training, however, leading to concerns that maybe he had just lost his swing overnight. Still, he’s just 33, so it seemed a little early for that to happen. Cora pointed out Martinez finally got going late in camp, especially driving the ball to right field – like he did on Sunday. Cora sent another message to Martinez in spring training, playing him quite a bit in the outfield instead of just using him as the designated hitter. While Martinez has started just one game in the outfield so far, it was perhaps a signal from Cora to remind Martinez to stay in shape.

Still, it’s hard not to ignore the psychological comfort of being able go into the dugout or clubhouse between at-bats to check the iPad. Few hitters in the game study their swing as studiously as Martinez — remember, he completely reconstructed his swing earlier in his career and was in the middle of that process when the Astros released him in spring training of 2014. Martinez signed with Detroit and has since had four 36-homer seasons, five .300 seasons and four 100-RBI seasons. And one big chip on his shoulder.

As for the Red Sox, their six-game win streak includes two extra-inning wins (12 innings over the Rays and 10 innings over the Orioles on Saturday) and they’ve hit a robust .332 with 53 runs those six games. Rafael Devers has homered in three straight games, Xander Bogaerts is hitting .375 and Christian Vazquez is off to a hot start. For this Red Sox lineup to click like it has in past seasons, though, it needs Martinez to thump.

What remains to be seen is how good the pitching will be. Playing six of nine games against the Orioles doesn’t really tell us much. This week’s series against the Twins and White Sox will be a much tougher test. Nick Pivetta, who won Sunday’s game with four runs over six innings, is a key member in the rotation. For now, the Red Sox are in first place – it’s early, of course, but that’s a much better place to be after starting 3-9 and 6-13 in 2019 (and never really recovering) and then 6-18 in 2020.



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Philadelphia Phillies reliever Archie Bradley on IL with oblique injury

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Philadelphia Phillies reliever Archie Bradley was placed on the 10-day injured list with an oblique injury, the team announced Sunday.

Bradley, 28, revealed the injury to Phillies brass after giving up a run on two hits in Saturday’s loss to the Atlanta Braves.

“It’s not something I can pinpoint,” Bradley said on Sunday afternoon. “It wasn’t one particular act that I felt it on.”

Bradley was a major offseason addition to the Phillies’ bullpen, which had a historically bad season in 2020. He gave up runs in two of his four appearances this year before heading to the injured list.

This is Bradley’s first experience with an oblique ailment, which can take considerable time to heal, depending on the severity. The righty wasn’t sure on a timetable for his return.

“It’s not something I felt doing baseball activities,” Bradley said. “Honestly, I don’t know where it came from.”

The Phillies recalled lefty JoJo Romero from the alternate site to take Bradley’s place on the roster. Romero was a late cut from spring training but is now needed just over a week into the season.

“He’s throwing the ball pretty well,” manager Joe Girardi said of Romero.

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San Diego Padres LHP Adrian Morejon leaves Sunday start with injury

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ARLINGTON, Texas — San Diego Padres left-hander Adrian Morejon left his start Sunday at Texas with an elbow/forearm strain after facing only three batters in the first inning.

Morejon threw 16 pitches, leaving after a four-pitch, two-out walk to Joey Gallo. He’ll be re-evaluated Monday.

Morejon, 22, was making his second start of the season. He worked four innings at home against Arizona last Monday and allowed two runs, both on home runs, and got a no-decision in the Padres’ 3-2 loss.

Morejon appeared in 14 games for the Padres during the previous two seasons, including six starts, without a decision.

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